The Butterfly Effect of Cannabis Legalization in Germany
As a long-standing cannabis activist in the United States, I have personally observed the 'cannabis political butterfly effect.' For many years, cannabis activists worked tirelessly at the state level to legalize medical cannabis, with no victories in the United States, despite their efforts.
However, this all changed in 1996 with the passage of medical cannabis legalization in California. This single victory proved to be the first domino that would knock over several others in the years that followed, with state after state passing measures via citizen initiative or legislative action.
The Domino Effect of Legalization
The same pattern emerged with adult-use legalization. The first states to legalize in the U.S. were Colorado and Washington in 2012, and roughly a decade later, the list has grown exponentially to 22 states, two territories, and Washington D.C. Both policy shift patterns demonstrate the butterfly effect.
However, it's important to note that not every reform victory triggers a public policy chain reaction. For instance, Uruguay legalized cannabis for adult use, and it was not until a few years later that Canada followed suit, and then a few years after that before Malta passed its own legalization measure. These examples highlight that not all prohibition dominos are created equal.
Germany's Influence on Global Cannabis Legalization
One international legalization domino is looming over all the rest right now – Germany. Germany is in the midst of a historic push to pass a national legalization measure, and while many of the policy facets involved are known, many of the regulatory requirements remain unclear.
What is clear, however, is that Germany is likely to spark a series of similar reform measures being introduced and passed in other countries, particularly in Europe. It is completely logical to assume that there will be a policy butterfly effect once Germany legalizes, unlike what has happened so far in Canada, Uruguay, and Malta.
Germany's Potential Impact on Europe's Cannabis Industry
Germany shares more borders (9) with other countries than any other nation in Europe. It is very unlikely that successful legalization in Germany will fail to move the needle in the region. Leaders in the Czech Republic have already publicly indicated that they will follow Germany’s lead, and presumably, several other countries are just waiting for Germany’s process to get further along before they do the same.
Germany is home to the world’s fourth-largest economy and holds tremendous political influence at the continental and global levels. Legalization in Germany is going to encourage countries throughout the world to get on the right side of history and work to end cannabis prohibition at a level never previously witnessed since the dawn of prohibition.
The Future of the International Cannabis Industry
This is all stellar news for the emerging legal international cannabis industry, as every reform victory yields new opportunities for entrepreneurs, investors, industry service providers, etc. Cannabis reform is on the move around the world, particularly in Europe, and that directly benefits overall industry pursuits.
However, there are still many questions to be answered, not the least of which are how fast can people expect things to start moving, and where should they focus their attention. Some nations are going to move faster than others, and some markets are going to be worth holding out for compared to other markets that may have a lower barrier to entry but less profit potential.
